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03/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie forwards usually take at least a season to develop into consistent performers at the NHL level.
Even in the case of No. 1 overall picks, who are expected to be stars, it usually takes a year of adjustment to the grind of the NHL's 82-game schedule before they become "difference-makers".
The past three No. 1 overall picks have all experienced the expected highs and lows during their rookie campaigns. While Chicago Blackhawks' dangler Patrick Kane (2007) and Tampa Bay Lightning pivot Steven Stamkos (2008) are currently thriving, 2009 No. 1 overall pick John Tavares of the New York Islanders is going through a rough patch.
The 6-foot-0, 195-pound center started the 2009-10 season on a high note, scoring 15 goals in his first 31 games, but since late December, his scoring touch has deserted him. The talented rookie has scored just three goals in his last 35 games ahead of the Islanders matchup with the Blues on Thursday night, with a goal in the Islanders' most recent game snapping a 17-game scoreless streak.
"I knew there would be some bumps in the road," Tavares told The Sportsbook Betting Lines earlier this week. "That is part of the process. Obviously every game I would like to do good things out there and be able to produce."
But what the 19-year-old rookie has been able to contribute during his first professional season, despite the extended scoring slump, should be enough to make the Islanders and their fans beam.
"He has continued to work out of his scoring slump," Islanders coach Scott Gordon said. "That's an important part of it. His game hasn't tailed off in other areas from his frustration in not being able to score."
Tavares has been able to work on keeping his motor running in the offensive zone, not giving up on plays while also covering the ice better, which is a big part of the center-ice position at the NHL level. While he isn't putting the puck in the net consistently, he is still at least creating chances for himself and his linemates.
"The biggest take-away is that he is allowing himself the opportunity to get better in smaller areas while he is trying to find his scoring touch," Gordon said.
"Obviously during this stretch I'm on, where things haven't really gone my way, I have learned a lot, tried a lot of different things and worked on a lot of different parts of my game, which is going to help me in the long run," Tavares said. "I know what I have been able to do my whole life and this will only help me get better as I go along. I think I have proven myself as well, that I belong here and I can contribute consistently and produce consistently. It's my first year, I'm learning a lot and it will really help me for my future."
Tavares need look no further than Stamkos for inspiration. As a rookie last season, Stamkos started off shaky before finally finding his groove toward the end of the season. The early part of the season, while rough on the youngster, helped him develop his game.
The result? Stamkos is among the NHL leaders with 41 goals scored through March 11 in this, his second season in the NHL.
"It's great seeing a guy like Steven, who I know personally, doing well after having a tough year last year," Tavares said. "He played really well the second half of the season. For me it's positive to see guys who have been in my position and succeeded."
That positive attitude not only bodes well for Tavares' future, but the Islanders, who have lacked legitimate star power for a number of years. Tavares and second-year winger Kyle Okposo give the Islanders a young duo up front who they can build around. Both players seem to have the maturity, pedigree and desire to be the go-to-guys in the near future.
"I've dealt with pressure for a long time," Tavares said. "For me it's not really new. I think it's a different type at a different level. Kyle has proven himself as a great player and I'm trying to do doing the same thing. We like that, we like being in the situation where we are relied on in situations. We want to come up with the big plays at the big times and we are excited about our future here as Islanders."
The Islanders are currently last in the Atlantic Division and second-to-last in the Eastern Conference, but with a couple horses in the stable, there is at least a glimmer of hope for the downtrodden franchise.
"You just take it one day at a time," Tavares said. "I think we are trying to improve in a lot of areas."
<< Kansas topples Texas Tech for milestone win
Kansas City, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sherron Collins scored 19 points and Cole
Aldrich chipped in 12 with 18 rebounds, leading top-ranked Kansas to an 80-68
victory over Texas Tech in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament.
Xavier Henr
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Winnipeg, MB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Winnipeg Blue Bombers signed four players
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<< Hoyas knock off top-seeded Orange in Big East
New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Wright scored 27 points and Greg Monroe
contributed 17 with 10 rebounds and seven assists, as 22nd-ranked Georgetown
pulled off a 91-84 victory over No. 3 Syracuse in the quarterfinals of the Big
East To
<< Atlantic Coast Conference Tournament Recaps
Greensboro, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sammy Zeglinski scored a season-high 21
points to lead Virginia to a 68-62 victory over Boston College in the first
round of the ACC Tournament at the Greensboro Coliseum.
Virginia (15-15), seeded ni
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New York, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Syracuse forward Arinze Onuaku injured his
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Colts bring in G Alleman >>
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Indianapolis Colts signed guard Andy
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Alleman played in nine games with Kansas City in 2009, with three starts.
He appeared in 15 games two years ago with the Miami Dolphins.
Southeastern Conference Tournament Recaps >>
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mikhail Torrance scored 17 points to help
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Justin Knox had 16 points and seven boards while JaMychal Gree
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
In the wake of the news that the 49ers have signed receiver Michael Crabtree after an extended holdout, there has been not a hint of the dollars to be paid to Crabtree.
And since this means that his agent hasn't leaked the numbers, it means that his agent feels no specific motivation to do so.
Possibly because his agent isn't all that thrilled to have his name on the deal.
So the numbers will come from sources other than Crabtree's agent. And we've gotten our mitts into them.
Per a league source, Crabtree has signed a six-year, $32 million contract. (The total includes guaranteed money, base salaries, and the one-time incentive based on achieving minimum playing time.)
The deal also includes $17 million in guaranteed money.
As reported elsewhere, the deal can void to five years based on performance triggers, wiping out a final year base salary of $4 million. But they won't be easily reached.
The source tells us that, in his first four seasons (including 2009), Crabtree must either qualify for two Pro Bowls, or he must qualify for one Pro Bowl in one year and he must participate in 80 percent of the offensive snaps in a separate year in which the team makes the playoffs.
In other words, if in 2010 he qualifies for the Pro Bowl and the team makes the playoffs and he participates in 80 percent of the snaps, he'll still need to make it to the Pro Bowl or achieve the 80-percent/playoffs in another season.
Since the chances of Crabtree making the Pro Bowl or participating in 80 percent of the offensive snaps this year is roughly zero percent, he'll have three years to get it done.
And it won't be easy. Frankly, he'll be hard pressed to make it to one Pro Bowl in three years with the likes of Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson, Anquan Boldin, Steve Smith, the other Steve Smith, Hakeem Nicks, DeSean Jackson, Johnny Knox, Percy Harvin, Greg Jennings, Roddy White, T.J. Houshmandzadeh in the same conference for sportsbook betting.
So, by all appearances, it's a six-year deal. And at $17 million in guaranteed money, the per-year guarantee is a tepid $2.83 million per year.
There's another problem with the deal -- it has no mid-tier incentive package. Instead, the additional $8 million that Crabtree can earn (pushing the max value to six years, $40 million) requires the kind of unrealistic, mega-star performances that no rookie is likely to ever achieve.
So while the contract paid to Packers defensive tackle B.J. Raji covers five years and pays $22.5 million, he has the ability (if he's a solid player) to make up the difference between his base deal and Crabtree's five-year, $28 million haul via the mid-tier incentive package in Raji's deal.
And unless Crabtree meets the performance thresholds necessary to void the sixth year, he'll be stuck under contract for another year at a base salary of only $4 million.
There's one other area of concern with the deal. Crabtree, per the source, received no option bonus. Instead, he has significant money tied to a fairly new device known as a "discretionary salary advance," which unlike an opition bonus is subject to forfeiture if Crabtree decides in a year or two that he wants to hold out for a better deal. (We're also told that the 49ers have included language that would make certain escalators subject to forfeiture, too.)
Meanwhile, the deal falls well short of the mark for which Crabtree and agent Eugene Parker were aiming -- the five-year, $38.25 million contract paid by the Raiders to receiver Darrius Heyward-Bey, the seventh overall pick in the draft.
Even if Crabtree successfully voids the final year, he'll make more than $2 million per year less on average than Heyward-Bey.
Thus, as we explained earlier in the day, this is a deal that Crabtree could have done in July, which would have given him a much better chance of making a contribution to the 49ers during his rookie year.
So while the final outcome can be described as win-win, the broader view suggests that it's really a lose-lose situation.
To visit this sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your college football betting needs.
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