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06/22/2010 - Milwaukee, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Milwaukee Bucks have acquired forward Corey Maggette from the Golden State Warriors for guard Charlie Bell and center Dan Gadzuric.
The Bucks also picked up the 44th selection in the 2010 draft as part of the exchange. The NBA Draft is set for Thursday, June 24.
Maggette is a veteran of 11 NBA seasons and recently completed his second year with the Warriors by averaging 19.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 2.5 assists in 70 games, 49 of those starts.
The Duke product shot 51.6 percent from the field and averaged 29.7 minutes per game. The 6-foot-6 former first-round draft pick was one of five NBA players to average double figures in scoring, shoot 50 percent from the field and 80 percent from the free throw line in 2009-10. His 7.9 free throw attempts per game ranked seventh in the NBA. He's reportedly owed close to $31 million over the next three years.
In 710 career contests, including 432 starts, the 30-year-old Maggette has posted 16.6 points per game, 5.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists while shooting 45.8 percent from the floor. Maggette spent his first pro season with Orlando before playing the next eight years for the Clippers.
"Corey has been a consistent scorer throughout his career," said Milwaukee general manager John Hammond. "He shoots a solid percentage from the field and has shown the ability to get to the free throw line. We're looking forward to having him in a Bucks uniform."
Bell completed his fifth season with the Bucks this past year, posting 6.5 points, 1.5 assists and 1.9 rebounds over 22.7 minutes per game. He shot 36.5 percent from three-point range on 73 long distance makes in 71 games (39 starts).
The 6-foot-3, 31-year-old has participated in 357 career NBA contests, making 137 starts and averaging 8.9 points, 2.4 assists and 2.2 boards while shooting 36.2 percent from beyond the arc. The Michigan State product appeared in seven games split between Dallas and Phoenix his rookie year before spending the next three years playing overseas.
Gadzuric has played through a plague of injuries since inking a six-year, $36 million contract in 2005. The deal concludes next season when he is due $7.2 million. He was limited to 32 games last season and averaged 2.8 points and 2.9 rebounds.
The 6-foot-11 product of UCLA garnered the extension after averaging 7.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 1.3 blocks per game in starting 81 games during the 2004-05 season. Those remain his career-best efforts in scoring and rebounding, having spent his entire eight-year pro tenure in Milwaukee.
"Charlie and Dan are two high-character veterans who can provide us with some of the intangibles that we need on our squad," said Warriors general manager Larry Riley. "While we certainly wish Corey well and thank him for his outstanding contributions the last two years, this will help alleviate a log- jam that we have at small forward and, more importantly, power forward, where we expect both Brandan Wright and Anthony Randolph to return from injuries and play an increased role on our team next season."
<< College Football HOFer Cloud passes away at 85
Williamsburg, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jack Cloud, who was elected to the
College Football Hall of Fame in 1990, has passed away at the age of 85.
Cloud was a three-time All-American fullback for William and Mary between
1947-49 an
<< NASCAR suspends two-time Nationwide champ LaJoie for drug use
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - NASCAR on Tuesday indefinitely suspended
Randy LaJoie, a crew member for Joe Gibbs Racing's No.18 team in the
Nationwide Series, for violating the sanctioning body's substance abuse
policy.
<< Rangers welcome back Cruz from DL
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Texas Rangers activated outfielder Nelson
Cruz from the 15-day disabled list on Tuesday.
Cruz went on the disabled list for the second time this season on May 30 when
he strained his left hamstring. He
<< Astros tweak roster, call up Castro
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Astros have recalled top prospect
Jason Castro, one of six transactions the club made on Tuesday.
Castro, a catcher the Astros selected with the 10th overall pick in the 2008
draft, had his c
Colorado reinstates closer Street for first time all season >>
Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Colorado Rockies announced today the
reinstatement of closer Huston Street to the active roster.
Street, who has spent the entire season on the disabled list with right
shoulder inflammation,
Oakland activates Crisp from DL >>
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oakland Athletics on Tuesday reinstated
outfielder Coco Crisp from the 15-day disabled list and designated outfielder
Eric Patterson for assignment.
Crisp has seen limited action this season. A fract
Jutanugarn medals at Women's Public Links >>
South Bend, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Thailand's Ariya Jutanugarn shot a four-
under 67 to earn stroke-play medalist honors Tuesday at U.S. Women's Amateur
Public Links Championship.
Jutanugarn finished 36 holes on The Warren Golf Course
South Carolina bounces top seed Arizona State from CWS >>
Omaha, NE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jackie Bradley Jr. homered and drove in four
runs while Sam Dyson threw 7 1/3 strong innings, as South Carolina ousted No.
1 overall seed Arizona State from the College World Series with a convincing
11-4 rout at
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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