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07/23/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Telling the truth has never been much of a problem for me, especially with things that really aren't going to amount to much when Saint Peter is making the decision on whether I'm fit to enter the pearly gates.
Back in 1998, I was one of dozens of columnists that thought Ryan Leaf would be a better pro quarterback than Peyton Manning. Fast-forward 12 years and I'm one of the few that still admit to that error.
Heck, Leaf had the stronger gun and was actually a better athlete than Peyton at the time, but those kinds of measurables didn't take into account the 10- cent head and spotty work ethic that accompanied Leaf's million-dollar arm.
Hindsight painted me as a poor judge of talent and the former Washington State star as not only one of the biggest disappointments in NFL history but a felon. On April 14 of this year Leaf pleaded guilty in Amarillo, Tex. to seven counts of obtaining a controlled substance by fraud and one count of delivery of a simulated controlled substance. The court sentenced Leaf to 10 years of probation and fined him $20,000.
One little mistake shouldn't stop anyone from getting back on the horse, however, and I have done it many times over the years with some good predictions and some bad.
In 2008, I was back on the NBA beat and thought the Chicago Bulls should have taken Kansas State star Michael Beasley over Windy City native Derrick Rose.
It was certainly a defensible position. Beasley was one of the most dominant players in the country during his freshman campaign at K-State, averaging 26.2 and a nation's best 12.4 rebounds. His 866 total points and 408 rebounds ranked third and second, respectively, among all freshmen in NCAA history, and the Maryland native also led the nation in double-doubles (28), 40-point games (three), 30-point, 10-rebound games (13), and 20-point, 10-rebound games (22).
The resume' was there but the thing that put Beasley over the top for me was his size. At 6-foot-10 and 235 pounds, "Beastley" had the prototypical NBA body.
The Bulls made their decision and plucked Rose, while Miami settled for Beasley at No. 2. It certainly hasn't been the basketball equivalent of Manning-Leaf just yet, but you can bet Chicago is quite happy with its selection thus far. Rose was named Rookie of the Year in 2009. an All-Star in 2010 and has developed into one of the game's best point guards while Beasley has struggled mightily with the off-the-floor problems.
In September of 2008, Beasley was involved in an incident at the NBA's Rookie Transition Program along with fellow freshman Mario Chalmers and Darrell Arthur. Police responded to the hotel room of Chalmers and Arthur following a fire alarm and claimed that the room smelled strongly of burning marijuana, but none was found and no charges were filed. Beasley was eventually fined $50,000 by the NBA for his involvement in the incident after Heat basketball chief Pat Riley forced him to confess to league officials that he had slipped out the door when the police arrived.
Things worsened by the next year when Beasley checked himself into a Houston rehab facility, just days after he posted pictures of himself on Twitter with what looked like marijuana in the background. The forward also wrote a number of vague postings hinting at suicide.
Beasley emerged unscathed and actually improved most of his numbers during his sophomore season in South Beach but with Riley executing a plan to team Dwyane Wade with LeBron James and Chris Bosh, he was no longer part of the plan in South Florida.
The former second overall pick was shipped unceremoniously to the Twin Cities for a pair of second-round picks in order to clear much needed salary cap space.
One man's trash can be another's treasure and the rebuilding Wolves think they might have something in the supremely talented Beasley.
That said, Minnesota president of basketball operations David Kahn has quickly made it clear that the kid gloves are off, speaking very honestly about Beasley's perceived problems.
"Michael Beasley smoked too much pot in Miami, but he's a changed man now. Make that, changed young man," Kahn told a Minneapolis area radio station. "He's a very young and immature kid who smoked too much marijuana and has told me that he's not smoking anymore and I told him that I would trust him as long as that was the case."
It's conceivable the more laid-back, family-friendly Midwestern atmosphere is just what Beasley needs to turn over a new "Leaf" and finally become the player he should be.
"He has developed a really good support system around him this past season in Miami," Kahn said. "He is growing up -- he's not grown up. He's 21. If you had given me this kind of money and put me in this kind of world with these kinds of pressures attached to it and some of the demands, I don't know how well I would have handled it. I think that if Michael was 25 or 26, maybe I would have felt differently. Some of these kids simply deserve the opportunity to make mistakes and grow up."
<< Reutimann signs contract extension with MWR
Indianapolis, IN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David Reutimann has signed a multi-year
contract extension with Michael Waltrip Racing to remain as driver of the
No.00 Toyota through the 2012 Sprint Cup Series season.
Reutimann and team owner
<< Orioles activate Roberts from DL
Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Baltimore Orioles have reinstated second
baseman Brian Roberts from the 60-day disabled list.
He had been sidelined since April 10 because of an abdominal strain suffered
while stealing second base in
<< Steelers ink Tomlin to extension
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Steelers extended the
contract of head coach Mike Tomlin through at least 2012, the team announced
on Friday.
In addition, the deal calls for an option year for 2013.
"Mike Tomli
<< Cowboys ink second-round pick LB Lee
Irving, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Dallas Cowboys have agreed to terms with
linebacker Sean Lee on a four-year contract.
The deal for the second-round draft choice is reportedly worth $1.7 million
guaranteed.
Dallas moved up four
Mika Miyazato leads Evian Masters >>
Evian-les-Bains, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mika Miyazato shot a five-under 67
to take the second-round lead Friday at the Evian Masters.
Miyazato finished 36 holes on the Evian Masters Golf Club with a nine-under
135 and will carry a one-sho
Canucks D Salo out with torn Achilles tendon >>
Vancouver, BC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Vancouver Canucks defenseman Sami Salo is
out indefinitely after suffering a torn Achilles tendon.
The Vancouver Sun reported on Friday that Salo was injured in his native
Finland while playing a
Indians activate Choo, disable Laffey >>
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Cleveland Indians have activated
outfielder Shin-Soo Choo from the 15-day disabled list.
He had been sidelined since suffering a right thumb injury in a game against
Oakland on July 2 while att
St. Etienne's Sanogo out for three weeks >>
Saint Etienne, France (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Saint-Etienne forward Boubacar Sanogo
will be sidelined for three weeks with a thigh injury and could miss the start
of the French Ligue 1 season, which starts the first weekend in August.
Sanogo left
MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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MySportsbook.com Week 1 odds:
Saints +6 @ Colts -6
Falcons @ Vikings (pick ‘em)
Panthers @ Rams (pick ‘em)
Broncos -3.5 @ Bills +3.5
Chiefs -1 @ Texans +1
Dolphins +3 @ Redskins -3
Patriots -5 @ Jets +5
Eagles -3.5 @ Packers +3.5
Steelers -4 @ Browns +4
Titans +6 @ Jaguars -6
Bears +6 @ Chargers -6
Lions +3 @ Raiders -3
Bucs +6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5
Giants +4 @ Cowboys -4
Ravens +3 @ Bengals -3
Cardinals +3 @ 49ers -3
Super Bowl line (2008)
NFC +6.5 vs. AFC -6.5
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